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The title of this blog is based on a book by Charles Kindleberger World in Depression (1929-1939). In the book, Kindleberger argues that (1) Financial markets are prone to contagion (Economic Bubbles), (2) the bubbles spread across countries and (3) Hegemonic leadership is important to stabilizing these dynamics. Markets pass through cycles of boom, crash, panic, repulsion and finally depression (sometimes called the Minsky-Kindleberger model).

In this blog, I will present my own state space (statistical) models (see the Boiler Plate) of the period for as many countries in the World-System as time permits. I have another blog, The Economic Bubble Machine, where present models of Economic Bubbles in other countries and other time periods.

To get an idea of my approach, check the post World-System (1900-1950): Did the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Cause the Great Depression? The Smoot-Haley Tariff is particularly relevant to current Economic Policy in the Trump II Administration and our continuing misunderstanding of what caused the "Great Depression".

The misunderstanding involves (1) the effect of positive and negative shocks to the economy, (2) the effect of feedback loops in the socioeconomic system in response to shocks and (3) how different countries in the World-System respond to shocks (in both time** and space) and transmit their responses to other countries, if at all. Indeed, there is more Complexity in the World-System than is generally recognized by Socio-economic theory.

A list of my other blogs can be found here. The R-statistical computer code for models presented in this blog can be found here.

NOTES

** This should be no surprise but the Economies of countries (for example, the US) differ in the feedback controllers from (1900-1950) to (1950-2000). Even Neoclassical economic theory would have to admit that markets and market structures changed after WWII, but that isn't all that changed.

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