World-System (1900-1950) World In Depression

  The title of this blog is based on a book by Charles Kindleberger World in Depression (1929-1939) . In the book, Kindleberger argues that (1) Financial markets are prone to contagion ( Economic Bubbles ), (2) the bubbles spread across countries and (3) Hegemonic leadership is important to stabilizing these dynamics. Markets pass through cycles of boom, crash, panic, repulsion and finally depression (sometimes called the Minsky-Kindleberger model ). In this blog, I will present my own state space (statistical) models (see the Boiler Plate ) of the period for as many countries in the World-System as time permits. I have another blog, The Economic Bubble Machine,  where present models of  Economic Bubbles  in other countries and other time periods . To get an idea of my approach, check the post  W orld-System (1900-1950): Did the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Cause the Great Depression?  The Smoot-Haley Tariff is particularly relevant to current Economic Policy in t...

  State Space Model Estimation The Measurement Matrix for the  state space models  was constructed using  Principal Components Analysis  with  standardized  data from the  World Development Indicators . The statistical analysis was conducted in an extension of the  dse package . The package is currently supported by an online portal ( here ) and can be downloaded, with the R-programming language, for any personal computer  here .  Code for the state space  Dynamic Component models (DCMs)  is available on my Google drive ( here ) and referenced in each post. Atlanta Fed Economy Now My approach to forecasting is similar to the  EconomyNow model used by the Atlanta Federal Reserve . Since the new Republican Administration is signaling that they would like to eliminate the Federal Reserve, the app might well not be available in the future. While the app is still available, there have been some interesting development...